The claim that Earth is running out of oxygen in 10,000 years is not supported by robust scientific evidence and appears to stem from a misunderstanding of research about Earth's long-term atmospheric evolution. Research.




The claim that Earth is running out of oxygen in 10,000 years is not supported by robust scientific evidence and appears to stem from a misunderstanding of research about Earth's long-term atmospheric evolution. The primary source for this claim seems to be a 2021 study by Kazumi Ozaki and Christopher Reinhard, published in Nature Geoscience, which models Earth's atmospheric changes over geological timescales. Here's a critical examination of the evidence and context:Key Points from the Study:
  • Long-Term Oxygen Decline: The study suggests that Earth's oxygen-rich atmosphere, currently at about 21%, will not persist indefinitely. In approximately 1 billion years, the atmosphere is predicted to lose most of its oxygen due to natural processes unrelated to human activity. This is driven by the aging Sun, which will increase in luminosity, warming Earth's atmosphere. This warming will accelerate the breakdown of carbon dioxide (CO₂), a critical component for photosynthesis.
  •  As CO₂ levels drop, photosynthesizing organisms (like plants and phytoplankton) will struggle to survive, reducing oxygen production. This process is expected to lead to a rapid deoxygenation event, where atmospheric oxygen levels plummet to levels reminiscent of Earth's pre-Great Oxidation Event (before 2.4 billion years ago).
  • The study notes that once this deoxygenation begins, it could occur relatively quickly in geological terms, over roughly 10,000 years. However, this does not mean oxygen depletion will start in 10,000 years. -- The 10,000-year period refers to the duration of the rapid decline after the process begins, which is projected to be about 1 billion years from now. Some media reports and outlets, have inaccurately suggested this decline starts in 10,000 years, which is not what the study claims.

Analysis:
  • No Immediate Threat: The 1-billion-year timeline places this event far beyond human timescales. The claim of oxygen running out in 10,000 years appears to be a sensationalized misreading of the study's findings, likely amplified by media.
  •  The original research emphasizes a gradual process tied to the Sun's evolution, not a near-term crisis.
  •  Earth's oxygen levels are stable at present, maintained by photosynthetic organisms like phytoplankton (producing 50-85% of atmospheric oxygen) and terrestrial plants. While human activities like deforestation and climate change impact ecosystems, they are not projected to cause a significant drop in atmospheric oxygen within 10,000 years. Oxygen levels have remained relatively stable for millions of years since the Great Oxidation Event.



Misleading Claims: Some sources, like the indy100 article, suggest the decline "starts in 10,000 years," which is misleading. The study's authors, Ozaki and Reinhard, clarify that the deoxygenation event is a billion years away, and the 10,000-year figure refers to the speed of the collapse once it begins, not its onset

Earth's atmosphere was oxygen-poor for its first 2 billion years until cyanobacteria triggered the Great Oxidation Event around 2.4 billion years ago. Oxygen levels have since fluctuated but stabilized to support complex life. The future deoxygenation is a return to an earlier state, not an imminent crisis.

Additional Considerations:

  • Other Biosignatures: The study also highlights that oxygen's presence is not a permanent feature of habitable planets, suggesting astronomers should consider other biosignatures (e.g., methane or hydrocarbon hazes) when searching for extraterrestrial life. This underscores the variability of oxygen levels over planetary lifetimes.





No Human-Driven Cause: The predicted oxygen decline is due to natural solarevolution, not human activities like climate change or industrial processes. Claims about oxygen depletion due to pollution or industry (e.g., myths about oxygen dropping to 5% in cities) are not supported by evidence and are often spread by dubious sources promoting products like "liquid oxygen" supplements.

The study's conclusions rely on computer simulations run over 400,000 times, varying climatic, biological, and geological factors. While robust, these models are not definitive predictions, as long-term geological processes are complex and subject to uncertainties.
Conclusion:There is no credible evidence that Earth will run out of oxygen in 10,000 years. The Ozaki-Reinhard study indicates a potential oxygen collapse in about 1 billion years, with a rapid 10,000-year decline once it begins. Misinterpretations in media and X posts have exaggerated and distorted this timeline. Earth's oxygen levels are currently stable, and any significant depletion is a distant geological event, not a near-term concern. For further details, the original study is available at Nature Geoscience

The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere







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