"The Trump Illusion: Dunning-Kruger Explains Overconfidence (And What 'Sciolist' Really Means)"

The Dunning-Kruger effect, first identified by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, describes a cognitive bias where individuals with limited knowledge or skill in a particular domain overestimate their own abilities. 

This phenomenon allegedly comes alive because the very lack of competence prevents people from recognizing their shortcomings; they simply do not know enough to understand what they do not know. 

In the world of politics, this bias has been summoned by psychologists and commentators to explain behaviours exhibited by President Donald Trump. While interpretations of Trump's actions vary based on political perspectives and definitions of expertise, historical and political evidence supports the notion that his conduct aligns with this effect. 

Now please let's explore key examples from Trump's business history, presidential tenure, and ongoing political activities, drawing on factual events to illustrate patterns of overestimation amid demonstrable limitations. Trump's business career provides a foundational historical context for examining this bias. 

Entering the real estate world in the 1970s under his father's influence, Trump often portrayed himself as a self-made genius, claiming unparalleled expertise in deal-making and development. His 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, positioned him as a master negotiator, yet his track record reveals a pattern of overconfidence leading to failures. 

For instance, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Trump expanded aggressively into casinos and hotels, borrowing heavily to finance ventures like the Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. He boasted that these would be "the biggest" and "most successful" projects, but by 1991, the Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy, followed by multiple other Trump entities over the next decade. 

These bankruptcies—six in total across his companies—highlighted a misjudgment of market risks and financial management, yet Trump continued to assert his business acumen, famously stating in 2016 that he was "the king of debt" and that bankruptcies were smart strategies. 

This self-assessment ignores the reality that his ventures often relied on inherited wealth and bailouts, not innate superiority, exemplifying how low competence in sustainable business practices can fuel illusory confidence.

Transitioning to politics, Trump's 2016 presidential campaign amplified these traits on a national stage. He frequently dismissed experts, claiming superior knowledge in areas far outside his experience. A notable example was his foreign policy assertions, such as declaring, "I know more about ISIS than the generals do," during a 2016 interview. 

This overestimation persisted despite lacking military or intelligence background; his campaign relied heavily on bombastic rhetoric rather than detailed plans. Once in office, this pattern manifested in policy decisions, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In April 2020, Trump suggested injecting disinfectants like bleach as a potential treatment, musing publicly, "And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute... Is there a way we can do something like that?" 

Health experts, including those from the CDC, immediately debunked this as dangerous, yet Trump defended his remarks as "sarcasm," refusing to acknowledge the scientific ignorance underlying them. This incident, amid a pandemic that claimed over a million American lives under his watch points to a failure to recognize expertise gaps, leading to potentially harmful public statements.

Trump's handling of international relations further illustrates the Dunning-Kruger alignment. He often praised authoritarian leaders, claiming personal rapport as evidence of diplomatic prowess. For example, in 2018, after meeting North Korea's Kim Jong-un, Trump declared the nuclear threat "largely solved," boasting, "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea." 

 Yet, subsequent intelligence reports showed no substantive progress, with North Korea continuing missile tests. Similarly, Trump's admiration for China's Xi Jinping, whom he called a "brilliant leader" despite Xi's human rights abuses and the U.S.-China trade tensions Trump himself escalated, reflects an overestimation of his negotiation skills. 

 These interactions, often framed by Trump as "wins," ignored geopolitical complexities, resulting in strained alliances and unresolved conflicts. Political analysts have noted that such overconfidence contributed to chaotic foreign policy, including the abrupt withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal without a viable alternative, which experts warned would destabilize the region. 

Even in domestic politics, Trump's staffing choices reveal a bias toward self-perceived competence over actual qualifications. His administration saw unprecedented turnover, with appointees like family members Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump handling critical portfolios such as Middle East peace and workforce policy, despite lacking relevant experience. 

 Trump justified these decisions by claiming he hired "the best people," yet many, including initial picks like Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort, faced legal issues or proved ineffective.

 This nepotism and loyalty-based selection process, rather than merit-based, aligns with Dunning-Kruger by prioritizing perceived alignment over expertise, leading to governance inefficiencies.

More recently, in his 2024 campaign and post-presidency activities, Trump continues to exhibit these traits. He has claimed credit for economic achievements predating his term or unrelated to his policies, such as asserting he "built the greatest economy in history" while downplaying the 2020 recession under his watch. 

 In speeches, he has made factual errors, like referencing "airports" during the Revolutionary War or confusing historical figures, yet maintains an air of infallibility. 

Public discourse on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) echoes this, with users citing examples such as Trump's bleach suggestion or windmill cancer claims as textbook Dunning-Kruger. 

While some counterarguments suggest Trump's confidence is performative rather than genuine ignorance—pointing to his awareness of personal limitations as expressed in private—or question the broad application of Dunning-Kruger to politics, 

the preponderance of historical and political facts supports the speculation. 

Trump's repeated overestimations, from business bankruptcies to policy blunders, demonstrate a consistent inability to self-assess accurately. 

Whether viewed as a sciolist—a superficial pretender to knowledge—depends on one's criteria for expertise, but the evidence paints a compelling picture of cognitive bias at work. In a democracy reliant on informed leadership, recognizing such patterns is crucial for voters across generations.