AI, Would you be able to estimate how many people have actually died during the Muslim pilgrimage to Holyland, Mecca, let's say in the past 10 years?

 


My Question: 
Would you be able to estimate how many people have actually died during early Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, let's say in the past 10 years? 
We can look at actual known published data every year up to about 10 years. Just a rough estimate, please.


AI Feedback:

Short answer up front: My best rough estimate is that between about 4,000 and _6,000 people died during the Hajj (annual pilgrimage to Mecca) in the last 10 Hajj seasons (roughly 2015–2024) — probably nearer the middle of that range.

Below I show how I reached that number, the known reported figures I relied on, and the important caveats (data are incomplete, Saudi official tallies sometimes differ from foreign tallies, and some years had big one-off disasters).

What I used (key datapoints & sources)

  • 2015 Mina crowd crush — the single deadliest recent incident. Independent tallies and some governments put deaths well over 2,000, while Saudi official counts were much lower (Saudi: 769). Because multiple reputable sources report the higher totals, I treat 2015 as a very large outlier (~2,000 deaths, range cited). Wikipedia+1

  • 2017 (and some other years) — background pilgrimage mortality — peer-reviewed analyses and hospital reports show that in non-disaster years there are still hundreds of deaths recorded in Mecca / sacred sites hospitals (for example one 2024 analysis cites 657 deaths in 2017 and other studies document hundreds in certain years). These reflect natural deaths (elderly/ill pilgrims), accidents and occasional incidents. ScienceDirect

  • 2020–2021 (COVID years) — Hajj was drastically scaled down (2020 almost no foreign pilgrims; 2021 very limited; therefore deaths those years were very small relative to normal). Wikipedia+1

  • 2024 extreme-heat event — multiple international news agencies reported over 1,000 deaths during the 2024 Hajj season, with Egypt reporting large losses among its pilgrims and Reuters / other outlets reporting totals of ~1,100+ as of late June 2024. (Saudi statements and foreign tallies again showed differences.) Reuters+1

Year-by-year (2015–2024) — best available reported counts or my working estimate

Notes: where I give a single number it's an estimate based on published tallies; where reporting was inconsistent I give a plausible range.

  • 2015 — ~2,000 (many foreign governments’ counts & later analyses put the death toll in the low thousands from the Mina crush; Saudi official figure was much lower). Wikipedia+1

  • 2016 — ~100–300 (estimate) — no single mass casualty on the scale of 2015; routine seasonal deaths and scattered incidents. (no single consolidated public total found) Wikipedia

  • 2017 — ~650 (reported in academic analysis) — one peer-reviewed analysis lists 657 deaths (hospital / site mortality data). Different countries also reported dozens to hundreds of citizen deaths returning. ScienceDirect

  • 2018 — ~100–300 (estimate) — individual country reports (e.g., Pakistan reported 64 Pakistani deaths) but no single global consolidated low-uncertainty total available publicly. Gulf Business

  • 2019 — ~100–300 (estimate) — normal (pre-COVID) large turnout year; published country-level counts exist but no single reliable consolidated global death total in major media that I can find. Wikipedia

  • 2020 — very low (dozens or less) — Hajj sharply limited due to COVID; very small pilgrim numbers so very few Hajj-season deaths attributable to pilgrimage that year. PMC+1

  • 2021 — very low (dozens or less) — again a scaled-down Hajj (tens of thousands allowed), low mortality relative to normal years. ScienceDirect

  • 2022 — ~100–400 (estimate) — attendance rose again; routine deaths from natural causes and some accidents; no single highly reliable consolidated global total found. Wikipedia

  • 2023 — ~100–400 (estimate) — large attendance year; routine mortality expected in that band absent a single large disaster. Wikipedia

  • 2024 — ~1,100–1,300 (reported) — multiple global outlets (Reuters, Politico, others) and governments reported that over 1,000 pilgrims died during the 2024 Hajj season, with Egypt and other countries reporting hundreds of nationals among the dead; Saudi numbers and foreign tallies showed some differences but the international consensus was >1,000. Reuters+1

Summing those estimates

Adding the conservative side of these estimates:

  • 2015 ≈ 2,000

  • 2016 ≈ 200

  • 2017 ≈ 657

  • 2018 ≈ 200

  • 2019 ≈ 200

  • 2020 ≈ 20

  • 2021 ≈ 20

  • 2022 ≈ 250

  • 2023 ≈ 250

  • 2024 ≈ 1,150

Total (sum of these working numbers) ≈ 4,947.

Because of reporting uncertainty (especially for years where only partial, country-level figures exist, and because of differing official vs foreign tallies in big incidents), a reasonable rounded range is ~4,000 – 6,000 deaths across the Hajj seasons 2015–2024 (rough central estimate ≈ 5,000).

Important caveats & uncertainties

  1. Under-/over-counting in different sources. Saudi official counts have often been lower than aggregated foreign tallies (notably 2015); some countries publish the number of their nationals who died, but global consolidation is inconsistent. For big incidents there are conflicting tallies. Wikipedia+1

  2. What counts as a “Hajj death”? I counted deaths occurring during the Hajj season and at Hajj sites (natural deaths among elderly pilgrims, heat deaths, traffic/bus crashes, stampedes). Some counts exclude unauthorized (illegal) pilgrims or exclude deaths of pilgrims who travelled independently — that can shift totals. AP News

  3. COVID years distort the average. 2020–2021 had tiny Hajj populations so mortality those years was very small compared with pre- and post-pandemic years. Wikipedia

  4. Climate & crowding risk is rising. 2024’s large heat-related mortality suggests climate-related spikes may cause more volatile year-to-year totals going forward. Reuters

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