Birth rates are falling in the Nordics. Are family-friendly policies no longer enough? Henry Mance - Financial Times writer - 2024 Jan 29
Twenty years ago, Finland appeared to have it all. The birth rate was rising and the proportion of women in the labour force was high. Policymakers from around the world, including the UK and east Asia, came to learn about the Nordic model behind it: world class maternity care; generous parental leave; a right to pre-school childcare.
But maybe they got it wrong. Despite all the support offered to parents, Finland’s fertility rate has fallen nearly a third since 2010. It is now below the UK’s, where the social safety net is more limited, and only slightly above Italy’s, where traditional gender roles persevere.
This is a puzzle for Anna Rotkirch, research director at the Family Federation of Finland’s Population Research Institute. A sociologist and demographer, she is one of Europe’s experts on how young people view having children. In 2020 and 2021, she advised then Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin on reinvigorating the country’s birth rate.
Across the world, fertility is declining in very different societies — conservative and liberal, big and small state, growing economies and stagnating ones. Even India — known for its growing population — now has fewer births per woman than the theoretical replacement rate of 2.1. In Europe in 2023, the rate fell in “Hungary, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, all the ones who were really high or were paraded as examples . . . It seems that Finland might be a forerunner, unfortunately.”
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, has said the birth rate is a “top priority”. French President Emmanuel Macron this month promised “demographic rearmament”. But Rotkirch cautions that their efforts are likely to underwhelm. “When you work with politicians, you always see the same things. ‘Oh yes, we should have one month’s more paternity leave!’ All the scholars are like: you should, but it won’t change anything.”
Europe’s policy challenge, she wrote recently, is “to prevent a [fertility] freefall as witnessed in many East Asian countries”. Yet policies that worked last century may not work today. Some are likely to cost huge sums without delivering the desired results.
Comments
Post a Comment